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Soundwave on 24 April 2013
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gigantor21 said:
TheLastStarFighter said:
People seem to forget about the existing titles. NintendoLand and NSMBU have tie rates over 60%. With Nintendo games it's not uncommon for that to continue. New buyers this Christmas will want some 2D Mario regardless of new games that may come out. Even if tie rates drop to 50% you're still looking at 10 million more sales for those old titles if Nintendo sells the hardware they expect.

If We see MarioKart, MarioU, Pikmin3, WiiFitU and other 1st party titles, plus AAA third party launched same day as other systems like COD, AC4, Watch_Dogs and maybe GTA5 there is no reason to think Nintendo wouldn't hit their expectations.

The real question is if they move their expected hardware. I think they will, but if the hardware sales continue to be slow then they won't hit software targets regardless of the tie ratio of the big titles.

I really doubt that they'll hit those hardware targets either. If we only saw something like 400k in hardware globally last quarter, despite Dragon Quest, MH3U and Lego City coming out, I expect to see more of the same--if not worse--over the next few months. I don't expect either Wonderful 101 or Bayonetta 2 to be big system pushers, whether they are released on schedule or not.

I'm also assuming that they aren't going to be doing a really big price drop on the hardware either. At most, I expect them to drop the price of both models by $50 and let the Basic die off on it's own. I doubt they'd want to put themselves in the red again when they've already had big losses recently as it is.

That's kind of the crappy thing, is Nintendo has basically handicapped themselves this year with the Wii U by basically writing off April-July entirely, so they have to sell everything between August-March 13/14. Not impossible, but it makes everything that much harder.

It's like having to only 2 days to study for a big exam instead of 3.

They better hope franchise fatigue isn't setting in a bit with Mario Kart. I loves me some Mario Kart, but even I have to admit, with Mario Kart 7 the franchise is starting to feel a little stale. In a lot of ways I think the fact that the GameCube was such a relatively failure helped "freshen" Nintendo's franchise roster to some extent, because a lot of people hadn't played those franchises since the SNES/N64 days (or maybe even NES days in the case of 2D Mario), and had built up an apetite for it.