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Soundwave on 24 April 2013
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Pineapple said:
Soundwave said:
Pineapple said:

Oh, as it turns out, 38 million is exactly what the GameCube shipped in the FY from April 2002 to April 03. In other words, Nintendo is suggesting a low software sales as those of the GameCube. 

It is really not - at all - an optimistic projection. Compared to te hardware number, it's downright ridiculous. If they meet their hardware projections, they'll blow past the software projection, possibly by more than 10 million. 

Source for the GC numbers: http://www.vgchartz.com/article/3035/big-4-videogame-hw-amp-sw-shipments-from-1983-to-2009and-beyond/


The GameCube had a pretty strong second fiscal year though in terms of software. Metroid Prime, Super Mario Sunshine, Zelda: The Wind Waker, Animal Crossing were all released and the GameCube had a price drop to $149.99 and a promotion of a free game thrown in as well if I recall correctly. 

That's pretty interesting to look at all those consoles though. Look at the Playstation 1 just take off like a rocket and the NES too. Cool stuff.

 

It is indeed cool stuff! 

And while the GC had a good lineup, It only sold 5.76 million consoles that fiscal year. Meaning that Nintendos projection is virtually unmissable. With 6 million Wii Us shipped over the next 12 months - which would be absolutely abysmal, and near a worst case scenario -  it still has a good chance of meeting the software projection. 

I really cannot see any realistic scenario in which they have to lower the software projection. It's pretty much as pessimistic as it could be. They're bound to meet - and likely to exceed - it. 

Before we get too carried away though we should probably also remember as of right now it's selling slower than the GameCube, even with a Mario game and without the harsh direct competetion the GCN was up again (had to go toe-to-toe vs the XBox/Halo launch and the PS2's second year was when it went into beast mode).

So there's no gauruntee it that beats the GameCube's second year.

I tend to agree though that it will beat the GameCube's second year, but come up short of the N64's second year (9+ million). Probably it will be a lot like the XBox 360's second year -- 7.7 million. That's my guess.