People seem to forget about the existing titles. NintendoLand and NSMBU have tie rates over 60%. With Nintendo games it's not uncommon for that to continue. New buyers this Christmas will want some 2D Mario regardless of new games that may come out. Even if tie rates drop to 50% you're still looking at 10 million more sales for those old titles if Nintendo sells the hardware they expect.
If We see MarioKart, MarioU, Pikmin3, WiiFitU and other 1st party titles, plus AAA third party launched same day as other systems like COD, AC4, Watch_Dogs and maybe GTA5 there is no reason to think Nintendo wouldn't hit their expectations.
The real question is if they move their expected hardware. I think they will, but if the hardware sales continue to be slow then they won't hit software targets regardless of the tie ratio of the big titles.
