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I don't mean to be a buzzkill but since no-one answered me asking this in the NPD thread:

Isn't LM2 actually overtracked "a lot" on here too? We have it at 451k on here; Nintendo's press release said that it was 415k sales, of which 365k were physical. That's about 86k we have it higher.

The only thing I could think is if their press release didn't go up to April 6th.

Just find it kind of weird because the tracking here had been extremely low for 3DS hardware, yet they still managed to overtrack the big software release.

Conversely, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon seems like it is undertracked.