I think a price drop is very likely this year. The falling yen and slow sales makes it very likely. I believe Nintendo is waiting for pricing info from their competitors, and waiting for more interesting software on the Wii U, before they make it happen.
Fall to me seems like a very likely time, perhaps around the launch of Wind Waker HD. Late August, September or October. It could also happen right after e3 if Nintendo feels its time and they want to make a bang. Soundwave's suggestion that Nintendo is holding back Pikmin 3 to launch with a Wii U post e3 price drop makes a lot of sense.
As far as what the price drop will be, I expect axing of the 8 gig model and the Deluxe moved to $299. I also very much expect new bundles for the fall. I think the Zombi U bundle worked quite well in the US after coming from Europe, and I think we could see more content added aimed at specific groups. Maybe we'll see:
Deluxe: $299
NSMBU Bundle: $349 with Remote&Nunchuck (or with Pro Controller if they patch NSMBU to support it)
Wii U Sports Bundle: $349 with Remote&Nunchuck if Wii Sports U is made and ready for fall. This could be a 32gig white and repace the basic white.
WiiFit U Bundle: $399 with Remote&Nunchuck, balance board and pedometer.
Other bundle options could be a black COD MW4 bundle with pro controller and continuation of Zombi U bundle but at $349.
Regardless, I think a price drop in 2013 is almost a certainty, and I expect Nintendo to continue to target specific groups with bundles, whether its casuals with Wii-title bundles or core with pro-controller bundles. These bundles will help reinforce that Wii U is a both a new system and that it supports these other control options (it's not just a tablet).
