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I think it will depend on the price structure for neXtBox/PS4.

If they are close to $500, Nintendo will stick it out and focus on bundling.

If they do subscription models below $400, then I'd expect a price cut near their launch. Probably $50 maximum.

Keep in mind the 3DS had a BIG margin when it was selling for $250 such that when it was reduced, it was barely losing money... kinda the point where Wii U is NOW. So any cut in Wii U price is putting the hardware further into the red, something Nintendo doesn't do. PLUS, they have stated in the last few investor meetings their goal is to return to continued profitability unlike the previous year.

A price cut will ONLY happen if they see it as a competitive move due to the rest of next-gen being priced very low. We'll see tons of bundling first until Wii U costs go down sometime next year.