I have to seriously wonder if almost anyone watched this video. It was a complete joke.
This thing read like a prayer that we all go back to the PS2 and ten years ago only this time with Microsoft heading the way.
Pachter starts off right away admitting he pulled his numbers out of his butt. They are completely made up.
Then they get into his fantasy, the next generation is going to be a smaller base and cost more but people won't care because the real cost will be hidden by an Xbox live subscription service. Thus the most expensive console solution and a subscription likely to always on internet service will win because people really want a $500 console so they can use it as a cable box.
I can't believe almost no one in this thread hasn't laughed out loud about this claim.
Here is the only point they seemed to get right. This generation has been the most expensive with no real price cuts ($100) over the 6-7 years and no dropping of the price to impulse buy territory. However the effect of this has been that younger kids have moved on to 3DS's, tablets and smartphones at the lower price points.
He spends all his time waxing on about a $99 Microsoft console. That would mean carrying about $400 worth of subsidy across two years. Add in a little bit of processing fees and profits and that means Microsoft is going to somehow convince people to give them $20 a month (minimum)for Xbox live service plus the console for the next two years. They aren't doing this because of the amazing games but again, because they want to watch television.
Per this video, the next killer game isn't something that uses 8 gigs of RAM and rocks it out at 1080p at 60 fps. It is television. That is just ridiculous.
Understand it isn't ridiculous to say that people will watch Netflix on their console. It is ridiculous to say that you will gladly pay a subsidized/subscription price to watch Netflix and have a few more services on your next console. If I said to any of you, give me $20 a month for the next two years so you can pay Netflix an additional $8 a month to stream video to your house but perhaps you can watch their streaming at 1080P instead of 720P with what you currently own, you'd laugh out loud.
Ask yourself, if the next generation consoles are going to offer the most amazing and compelling gaming experiences every, why is everyone predicting sales of fewer total consoles sold? If this upgrade in experience is so compelling, then why is it predicted that fewer people will buy it?
Fewer will buy it because of what it is competing against and at what price points those other solutions will come in at compared to these next gen consoles.
These $500(likely) streaming television solutions will be competing against $60 boxes like Roku and $100 boxes like Apple TV. I have no doubt that by next Christmas there will be plenty of $100 tablets with the specs of the Nexus 7.
Nintendo might have a chance because they are offering a compelling solution at a price that can still drop into impulse buy area. Sony and Microsoft can still drop their current gen consoles but that will just make the next gen solutions look that much more expensive (not that most of them weren't bought at $199 Christmas sales anyway the last couple years.)
Microsoft is being downgraded. Sony is almost broke. Both are doubling down on failed strategies.
