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Soleron said:

Old world: People buy a stationary desktop and a portable laptop
New world: People buy a stationary laptop and a portable tablet

Tablets are now good enough for all life/entertainment uses that formerly needed a laptop. Serious work and long-session gaming will still be done on a PC.

Think of it in terms of devices that fulfill jobs for the customer rather than something winning and something losing.


That sounds about right. And since desktops represent around a third  of the PC market, we can probably expect the PC market to contract to about one third of its former size.

As for what kills tablets, it would have to be some kind of even cheaper, lighter, and more ubiquitous computing, perhaps like Glass, but not in it's current $1,500 obtrusive form. I think the necessary display and interface technology is at least a decade away. We'll need truly effective voice, hand tracking, and/or eye tracking interface, and we're only just now getting to the point where the first is starting to be useful.



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