MS already tie content to your XBL account without online only so this is not a case for Online only. MS already controls content they sell you online, like XBLA games, movies, TV shows, Music and videos which does not require today online only so those are not cases for MS to go that route.
You are right that MS could do always online and unless they have an ace under their sleeve they will fail. I am not saying that MS might not go for an online only console. What I am saying is that if they do, they must have something that makes it worth the consumer to purchase such a console. IF MS comes out with a 399/499 console that you can only use it online how will they position such a console if the competition does not have that restriction. Its not like MS, a billion dollar company is going to risk a billion dollar product just for DRM.
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