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Online only is not the way to tie customer to you permanently. Making content that is tied to an account where users can only access using your services is the way you permanently get customers to stay with you. If customers are purchasing your content and services then by choice the customers would be tied to MS. I still do not see for the console to be online only other than for DRM purpose and really for Purchased disk based games.

The reason the market dose not support what you are saying is that the market already have sub based systems like phone, tablets, which all allow you to play your content offline if no net connection is present. This would mean that MS would have to go against whats already established and sell it to consumers who already have devices that give them this ability.

The only way to justify doing it different is if you can provide something customers need as a result. Making GOLD a service like PS Plus where you can basically play any game you want for the Sub price. Think about services like Hulu and Nextflix, where you can watch what you want for the sub price but those are basically rental type of services which if MS wanted to go down that road they could do. Or they can do what they do with their Zune music service. You can download all the music you want and play it offline for a month. At some point during that month if you connect to the internet to verify your sub then all is good. If the month ends and you have not verified your Sub then the service would ask you to connect to the net before allowing you to play your content.

MS already have models for their subscription service and none of them require you to be online only in order to use the content. For MS to change what they already do would mean there is some competitive advantage to do so. The market doesn't show it so it would have to be something new.

I do not remember being able to play any multiplayer games for the PS2 until after the Xbox. It was the main reason why MS could start with the whole GOLD thing in the first place.