| superchunk said:
See my linked thread in my sig. It has a comparison from launch to the same week. Even with two extra weeks in PS3s total to date, WiiU is still ahead in sales. So this idea that WiiU is trailing far behind anything but Wii is simply false. WiiU is still cumulitively ahead of PS360 with launches aligned by a good amount. According to this very site, PS3's LTD at the end of 2007 was 9.2m. That's for the "first year" that I was referrencing above. So yes, I incorrectly said "about 7m" in regards to PS3 (I was just thinking of its 2007 only data, not 2006 launch plus 2007) and yes I do think WiiU will be around 10m by end of this year LTD. WiiU is currently around 2.8m and with just a few games saw a ~100% increase in its weekly sales from 30k to 60k. Once the launch times passed in Nov and March, PS3 also dropped to about 60k a week (beginning of March and then in June respectively). There are good games launching in Q2 leading to E3 where there will be a lot announced for Q3 and Q4. Some of which we don't even know about. Look at how Nintendo handled bundling and various sale prices for 3DS. WiiU will get that in Q3 and especially in Q4 with some big games like ZeldaWWHD. 2.8m now. Q2 and Q3 another 3m... 5.8. Then at least another 4m or more over holidays as WiiU has the competitive price advantage to the rest of next_gen and mostly the same games that look nearly identical. So yes, WiiU will be around 10m by end of year. |
The launch sales are irrelevent to its future sales potential. If we could just extrapolate then the Wii U should have done 2.6 million in these first three months of 2013 because it was ahead of the PS3's launch by 80% in 2012. It is a fact that Wii U 2013 is trailing PS3 2007 by a huge margin. I don't know how you can say it is false.
In order to do 3 million in Q2 and Q3 it will need to average more than 115k per week. If it does about 60k with game releases, how is it going to average nearly double that for all those weeks with nothing? After a week in the UK Monster Hunter dropped out of the top 40 and so did Nintendo Land after its brief reappearance. What will be the next game to increase sales? Pikmin or Wii Fit U? Neither of which have release dates yet, but let's say they come out in June. Even if the Wii U somehow manages to maintain 60k a week until June, that would mean it would need to average 145k a week for the next four months. If it drops back down to 30k it would need 161k a week.
The PS3 did 2.17 million in calendar Q2/3 2007. In that period of time it dropped below 60k twice, and only one of those weeks was lower than what the Wii U did with Monster Hunter and Lego City. What leads you to believe the Wii U will be 38% higher? The PS3 dropping to 60k is not equivalent to the Wii U rising to 60k on new releases.
This seems reminiscent of the 3DS and DS comparisons where people thought that because the 3DS was ahead it would stay ahead regardless of sales trends for both systems. Of course now the DS is far ahead and increasing the lead by hundreds of thousands weekly.
