Akvod said:
Player2 said:
Akvod said:
Player2 said:
Akvod said:
By console I meant home consoles. I think they should stay in the handheld market since they have a good target segment and didn't fuck up in terms of the hardware or 3'rd party support.
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If we take a look at the last gen Nintendo sold ~388M home console games. If this is approximatedly true:
Then Nintendo needs to sell (27+7)*388M/27=488M, around 100M games more, something I don't think it's feasible. To put things in perspective, that's approximatedly the amount of games Square Enix or Ubisoft have sold on the HD consoles this gen.
And that is without the money Nintendo makes from the sales of third party games on its platforms.
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Why exactly would they need to have a publisher?
I did a quick analysis and here's what I got:
So yeah, let's get down to the publisher thing since it makes a big deal. Why exactly would Nintendo need a publisher? I'm assuming you mean Nintendo approaching a company like Activision, EA, or maybe one of the Big 3.
Edit: Google Docs
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Akier6EZHQH1dDJ5UTgxamJQbnZzeXVPRTZqTGE1d3c&usp=sharing
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In my numbers I didn't remove the money the publisher gets, but the platform royalties.
"Returns." is the cost associated with returning unsold inventory (sales that don't meet expectations, basically), so it isn't a profit.
If you remove that then Nintendo needs to sell 1.26x (rounded up) more to break even.
1.26x388M = ~489M.
And again, that's without the money Nintendo makes from the sales of third party games.
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So you don't think Nintendo would be able to sell 20% more for each game if it doubled its consumer base? Also, do you think that the same demand for Nintendo products exist even now (e.g. Wii Fit)?
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I don't think Nintendo games will sell 25% more on Microsoft+Sony consoles. First of all because I don't think Nintendo games will boost their combined userbase past 200M (double Nintendo's userbase) if their consoles launch at $400+. Probably only the biggest Nintendo fans (~those who bought a Gamecube) will buy one. And if we look at the sales of "traditional" Nintendo games like Mario Kart we see that those games did way better on the Wii due to their broad appeal, some of those who bought Wii Fit or Wii Party bought 2D Mario as well.
There's still a market for non-traditional games, but not at any price. For people that isn't interested in tech is hard to justify the purchase of an expensive piece of hardware that doesn't seem to improve the games they want to play in a noticeable way. Just Dance keeps selling on a dead platform (if Ubisoft keeps milking it at the current rate it won't last too long, though), Animal Crossing is twelve years old and it has never been this strong, and Kinect games keep selling.
Microsoft and Sony believe that the demand for this games still exists as well, otherwise they wouldn't force-bundle Kinect 2 and those cameras the PS4 will come with.
