Mario. Period.
Firstly, Mario's been practically the best selling video game franchise for each generation since he's been out. Even if Nintendo has unpopular crap consoles. (No offense, Gamecube) Call of Duty is a somewhat new game, and that right there prevents it from becoming as big as Mario for the time being..
Secondly, COD is multiplat. If Mario was on PS3/360, two very popular consoles, It'd run circles around COD in sales. Though it already does.
Lastly, I think as popular a game as COD is, it doesn't really have a hardcore fan base like Mario or Halo. It's more of a contemporary game where people buy it because it's popular and a shooter, and I don't think it'll be as popular in the future generations, though I'm sure Mario will.
So yeah, COD is slightly more popular as of current, though in all, Mario is the bigger franchise.
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