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superchunk said:
$100 for APU
$100 for 8GB GDDR5 RAM
$50 for 1TB HDD (they'll need large HDD due to forced game installs)
$25 BR Drive
$25 rest of mobo and innards
$25 for 3D PSEye
$15 for DualShock4
$15 for various connectors and packaging
$5 for powercord/brick

That's about $360 in total parts for the package. Not including any assembly, storage, shipping, or retail margin.

AT A BEST CASE SCENARIO you'll see it at $399 for some base sku with no game and Sony selling it at a reasonable loss. More than likely we'll see it at $429 to $499. Same as neXtBox.

I think you're overestimating the price of the GDDR5 memory a bit. A lot of videocards have 1gb and 2gb versions these days and the difference in price between the two is usually below $10. I would say 8gb GDDR5 wil cost them $70. On the other hand $5 is way to low for the power supply. The real question is how much loss will Sony want to take on the system but my guess would be the price will be $399 and $499, probably with a free game(probably more like a smaller game to that shows off feautures like Kineckt Adventure). I also expect 3 months of free Playstation Plus access.(not Gakai though, giving that for free from the start will put to much load on servers).