| ioi said: Entroper - thus discouraging people from playing it safe with easy predictions. |
IMO there are two things going on here. The first thing is that the rules were changed AFTER we had already made predictions on the first round. So people bet big on safe predictions and then had the rug pulled out from under them with a different set of rules. That's highly annoying, but I can understand that if this is the system you want to use, it would be equally annoying for you to try to implement two different systems.
But the other thing is that it's now close to impossible to determine a good allocation. With a fixed system, you bet big where you're confident you'll be accurate. It still doesn't guarantee success, because anything can happen. But with the averages system, you really get penalized where the average prediction is close.
I understand that the averages system is more likely to encourage risky betting, but it makes the game a lot harder, and not usefully so IMO. It may be easier to win money with the fixed system, but you are still competing with everyone else on who can win the most money. I think the averages system is going to discourage large betting, because people will be too likely to lose their money. I haven't participated in any of the rounds since you announced the change for this reason.
IMO, it is not a bad thing if the system results in slightly more winnings than losses on average. After all, you're not a casino, you can print infinite money. :) In fact, I think an upward trend encourages greater participation in the betting, and like I said, the essence of competition is still there because you don't just want to win money, you want to win the most money.
