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Perhaps there should be a way of stretching and squashing the money given depending on accuracy (I haen't seen the exact formula used so perhaps this already happens) For instance in PS3s case the average was 95% or whatever... and if you get 95% you get squat... this is very fair because it was obviously easy to predict. If you got half way between 0% and the average 95%, you get half your money back, wheras if you get halfway between 100% and the average (95%) you get 1.5X your money back.