This is pretty simple math.
Many people arent willing to pay for online play (like me) because its a service of unpredicted value. It may or may not work well, it may or may not be populated and it may be turned off by the publisher at their own leasure. As such, its a service that is limited and has dubious value. The costs of running it, beeing as its a temporary service, should be included in the box purchase and possibly DLC because it isnt a service but a feature of the product, beeing as its time limited and doesnt depend on you paying the fee to be continued.
With that said, people like me abhore the idea of paying for such an unpredictable and unreliable service. As such if i want to acess it free of charge, i am going to buy the console that supports that option. What does this means in terms or revenue? Simple:
(People willing to pay for a premium service to play online) x (fee) - (people not willing to pay a fee that will buy a different console) x (royalties of every game they will buy for the system).
At the end of the day, a costumer that buys more than 5-6 games a year would earn the company more than someone who pays the fee for online.
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