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snowdog on 17 March 2013
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I've said this so often I should copy and paste this for future use lol.

By the time the delayed launch/launch window titles such as Lego City Undercover, Pikmin 3, The Wonderful 101, Rayman Legends, Wii Fit and Game & Wario are released the Wii U will pick up sales momentum again. And then you've got the likes of Monster Hunter 3G Ultimate, Wind Waker HD and Bayonetta 2 to take into account too.

Then you have the possibility of a $50 price cut in November to coincide with the launches of a 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8.

You're going to see the Wii U having an installed userbase between 10m and 15m before the end of the calendar year, and you can quote me on that.

Then you need to look at the potential problems that both Sony and Microsoft are going to have. Sony are going to have problems getting the PS4 ontthe shelf for less than $400 considering their ridiculous decision to go for an expensive and high tech machine yet again when doing so from the PSP onwards hasn't done them any favours. 8GB of GDDR5 and a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops isn't going to be cheap.

Microsoft should be able to have the 720 retailing for $399.99 given their more sensible choices with hardware but if the rumours of always online and no used games are true that's going to be a dealbreaker for a fair amount of people.

And if the price and no used games aren't enough problems for the PS4 and 720 in terms of sales you've also got to take into account problems manufacturing components on a 32nm or more likely a 28nm process, there's going to be a lot of wasted silicon and most likely stock shortages.

In terms of units sold Nintendo's year head start will make it pretty impossible for the others to overtake. The 360 would have been last place in a three horse race if it weren't for that 6m or so advantage that an extra year of sales gave the platform, and Nintendo's IPs have considerably more pulling power.

And because of that huge marketshare advantage and Nintendo's forward thinking with regards to hardware and choice of architecture you'll see the Wii U getting a SKU of major 3rd party titles this gen. Publishers aren't going to leave that sort of money on the table now that Nintendo have ditched the TEV Unit in favour of traditional programmable shaders.