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Max King of the Wild on 17 March 2013
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I'll post this again in here for those who missed it:

Nintendo shipped 3million in Wii U's first quarter... respectable number actually... till you realize Nintendo realizes they overshipped and didn't meet their expectations on top of that so they lower their estimates to 4mil total after it's second quarter... so 1 million in 3 months...

Possible? Well considering Wii U only sold 120k in 2 months and will sell similarly in it's 3rd month then in US alone it will sell a measly 180k in 3 months. Add Mexico and Canada you get 200k... We know Europe is worse than NA and Japan due to Nintendo's own financials. VGC has it at 90k with another 4 weeks left... VGC has it selling 6k a week... so add another 40k for the next for weeks and you get 130k for Europe.... 330k in 2 markets. Now for Japan, famitsu and mediacrete have it selling at 173k and another 4 weeks till end of quarter. So add 40k and you get 213k in Japan... Nintendo will sell less than 543k at it's current pace. Even if games raise I don't see it being much more than another 50k...

Now, considering Nintendo will ship less than they sell to reduce the overstock from Holiday sales they will probably miss their revised shipment by about 400k.

So in the first half woth of fiscal year the Wii U is on the market Nintendo will ship about 3.6mil and sell through about 2.6mil (Which is funny because this is what VGC has it at right now... Which I'm assuming is from them overtracking NA by 200k in Dec.

Now, how much will it sell in it's second half of the year? Bet it's less than 2.6mil. Wii U will sell less than 5mil by Sept.

Now people really expect Mario, which has always been popular since it's inception, will increase it's sales by how much? Let's be realistic here. The Wii U will not touch the Wii on any level. Why do I expect Wii U to go back to pre-Wii levels? Well because that's really Nintendo's market cap. The Wii captured a new audience which won't be back to any system this gen. Wii U will be lucky to reach NES level of sales. Especially when you realize it's tracking below Nintendo's weakest system to date.