After Activision bought Bizzarre Creations and then disbanded the company due to blurs poor sales, head developers from that company joined Turn 10, CodeMasters, and Playground Games. So while Bizzarre Creations fell apart, the developers were still around in other company's.
After MS bought Rare and starting making Rare develop Kinect games, a lot of head employee's left to join Crytek.
Similar things would happen if MS/Sony left.
If Microsoft left, things would go back to the way it was before Microsoft joined, just like on PS1/N64, but the gap probably won't be as big. 343 would join Gurilla, Activision or EA, etc.
If Sony left, Nintendo would probably come in and buy various studios and build up 1st party studios. I would bet that most of the Japanese developers would become Nintendo exclusive, and Western developers would either go multiplatform or Microsoft exclusive. Either way, Nintendo would get all of Japans support (like in has on 3DS and it had on SNES), and the Microsoft platform will do well in America's, but it will always be second to Nintendo.
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