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I would agree with 3.5M +/-
Nintendo needs to spam the console early so they can't guarantee their domination to the point of no return. The demand is still there and strong after more than a year.
They are also expanding into new regions and that opens up more flexibility for diverting their wares.
I see 4.1M/month as possible.

I would think, making it 4M/month throughout is easier than going from 1.8 > 2.2 > 2.6 > 3.3 > etc...

I am just pulling crap outta my ass, don't quote me on it :)