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I think Gears for two reasons...

Both are more a North American type of game so they will both do best here. But, 360 has two and a half times the install base as PS3 in North America, so Gears has more market to sell to...

Also, Microsoft's marketing machine was awesome in North America for Halo 3... No reason why the same level and hype for Gears 2 won't be there.