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MikeB said:
@ HappySquirrel

The XBox 360's popularity in North America


Don't you think this will change to the advantage of the PS3?

My reasons:
- Fewer XBox gamers will be upgrading as the XBox has already been unsupported for over 2 years already and the best selling XBox games already saw sequels on the 360.
- Blu-Ray becoming a more important distinguishing factor to the advantage of the PS3. (not only with regard to movies)
- MGS4 and Gran Turismo 5 for the PS3, there's nothing similarly high profile expected for the 360 apart from the PS3/360 multi-platform title GTA IV. For FPS fans I think Killzone 2 and Resistance 2 (will IMO demonstrate the Cell advantage from a technical perspective) will be of importance.
- I think Home will be more popular than most people here anticipate, also an important distinguishing factor.

One of the most important factors in people choosing the consoles they do is what console their friends and family own. Whereas Blu-Ray playback has no impact on the (more than) 70% of households in Norh America who only own standard definition televisions (and the large portion of households where the gaming system is attached to their secondary, non-HD, television) the 6 Million user lead for the XBox 360 will have a massive impact on hardware sales.

Metal Gear Solid 4 and Gran Turismo 5 will be the worst selling games in their series because the Millions of PS2 owners who bought a PS2 for less than $200 and picked up these games because they were high profile (with no real love for the series) are not likely to buy a $300 or $400 PS3 to play them.

The Cell processor will never make a big impact on this generation because it has been over a year and the PS3 still struggles to perform as well as the XBox 360, and there has never been a generation where a system has gained sales due to being more powerful. Blu-Ray will also never make much of an impact because it requires an install to match the load times of the XBox 360's DVD drive, and there are few developers who can afford to produce 25GB of compressed game content.