The next gen really has got off to a poor start with the first 3 entrants failing to really excite the world. 3DS is doing OK but Japan is really the only strong leg in what really should be a 3-legged stool (Japan, USA, Europe) for really solid and sustainable YoY growth through the first half of its cycle.
PSV has failed so far and is ulikely to get anywhere near PSP sales. Wii U, despite hopes is off to a very disappointing start and also is highly unlikely to get close to Wii sales.
This leaves PS4 and Nextbox to really give console gaming a nextgen boost. I'm hopeful, but not confident. I don't see the Kinect casuals jumping in to Nextbox in any greater numbers than the Wii casuals have jumped in to Wii U. And I thnk Kinect casuals have been responsible for a substantial amount of late gen sales for 360, so the momentum 360 appears to have maintained (though falling recently) is not a true indicator of launch potential for Nextbox. I think PS4 has a solid base of support from PS3 (given the "casuals" have largely ignored PS3), but something pretty special is going to be needed to wean people from a HD system to a full-HD system. What they've shown so far is good, but nothing to get high launch window adoption.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
