Have nintendo really lost the casuals?

[Gamerace]

Yes but not necessarily forever. Nintendo just has to produce games/experiences that appeal to that group.

Currently they are VERY well served on tablets/smart phones so whatever experience Nintendo (or MS/Sony) comes out will MUST be something that can't be done on tablet's now.

This is the fundimental reason I say WiiU's gamepad is a mistake. Casual's don't want dual analog and already have lots of touch screens. The Wii-mote provides an experience tablets can't and Nintendo should have refined and enhanced that (with touch surface/screen sure) and continued to make great fun family friendly accessible to all ages Wii games for the casuals.

Wii Fit U is coming but will epically fail as no 'casual' is going to drop $350 (basic system + game - assuming they have a wii fit board) for a game that they already bought once or twice. Nintendo would REALLY have to show it's a vast improvement over the previous entries. It's not by all available info so far. Besides the exer-gaming fad is pretty much dead now.

A Wii Sports U would do better but still the use of the gamepad (and cost of the system) will discourage purchases. Plus what new sports would they do or what would be significantly better now because of the gamepad?

Despite all the failings of WiiU conceptually, a couple of major break-out hits (a guitar Hero or Just Dance if not Wii Sports) could revive it to healthy sales - IF it's not available on PS3/360 (which they would be if 3rd party)