The PS3 is not the PS2

[stof]

I've noticed quite a few people around this forum that state adamantly that the PS3 will "win the console war". These opinions most often seem to be based on the playstation brand's past successes. But the PS3 is a fundamentally different animal than it's predecessor. And there are also many outside forces which paint a dramatically different picture for this console generation. So I'd like to lay out my case as to why I don't think the PS3 will be anywhere near as succesfull as the PS2. The issues I see consist of price, format, timing and competition. Ok, price is the easy one. The PS3 isn't priced in the same ballpark as the PS2. It's priced in the range of the 3DO... Then there's price cuts. It'll be a while before the PS3 can cut it's price, but by all acounts the 360 and Wii could see price cuts tomorrow if they wanted to, which pretty much means that any PS3 price cut will be handily matched by the competiton. Format - The PS2 saw huge success by incorporating a DVD player, which at that point had already taken off. the PS3 is being used to push Blu-ray into the market. Blu ray is not DVD. It only matters if you have a high def tv and it's in a format war with HD-DVD. Now this might be a smart move for Sony Corp as a whole, but it's one that sacrifices one department (gaming) to assist another (video). Either way, having a blu-ray player just doesn't have the same advantage as having a DVD did for it's predecessor. Timing - the PS2 came out a year before it's competition, so even though it was the least powerful system, it had sufficient time to get a decent library of games and develepor attention before it's competition arrived. That advantage now goes to the 360, a system that saw massive shortages and a weak catalogue at launch, but was able to pick up steam just in time for the holiday season. While the PS3 and Wii arrived virtually simultaneously, asside from Europe. Competition - The PS2 had largely weak competition. The Dreamcast, despite initial sales, died the moment Sony said "We'll have the PS2 next year". Gamecube continued Nintendo's trend of losing third party support, while also seeing weak entries into it's flagship titles, and the Xbox, while doing well for a first endeavour, was hampered by it's timing, and a limited variety of games. The PS3 has much more competent competition. The 360 has garnered a lot of attention with it's comprehensive live services, and has used it's head start to get a good (though still somewhat limited in variety) catalogue of games, with many more big titles coming. The 360 has also managed to significantly chip away at Playstation exclusivity, landing Grand Theft Auto, Assassins Creed, RE 5, guitar hero and possibly numerous others. Then there's the Wii. While the Gamecube was Nintendo's worst selling non Virtual Boy system ever, the Wii's sales are so far matched only by...well... the PS2. And regardless of what you might think of the new direction the Wii is going in, you have to admit that it's garnering huge attention, both in the consumer and developer world. Sales remain constricted only by supply, and developers who never really cared about Nintendo that much are actually getting really excited about the system. The low price doesn't hurt either. So with the playing field between the PS3 and 360 being far more level, and the Wii proving to be a gaming phenomenon in and of itself, it's hard to see the focus lying entirely on the PS3. Finally, I'd like to mention the all important game argument. Many people say, but in a few years the PS3 will have all the amazing games so it will succeed. But this is circular logic. It's the PS brand's success that turned into the platform of choice for most third party developers, but with all these negative circumstances surrounding it in this gen, it's highly unlikely that it will garner the same level of consumer/developer support. It'll have some amazing games to be sure, but most systems have some amazing games... Well that just about wraps up my ramble. I hope this doesn't come off as too fanboyish, because I'm not trying to say that the PS3 is by any means a bad system. I just think that looking at it objectively, it's illogical to say that it'll be successful as it's predecessors, as it has very few of the advantages it's previous iterations did.