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Mummelmann on 22 February 2013
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Kaizar said:
Mummelmann said:
Kaizar said:
Mummelmann said:
Argh_College said:
badgenome said:

 

The future is not clear cut and the 8th generation of consoles will not be the last one. Home consoles are evolving and will continue doing so and aren't going anywhere any time soon. Dedicated handhelds, however, will soon be a thing of the past.

This is my take on things anyway, I believe quite a few people would agree.


Actually the 3DS sold more in its first 1 month sales then any other video Handheld & Home Console ever, and same goes for first 12 month sales & first 18 month sales.

The first 6 months sales of 3DS was 1st or 2nd best.

The Wii U has already sold 2.5 million in its first 60 to 75 days, but the PS Vita life time sales are 4.1 million.

Smartphones & PC & Tablets just don't have any effect on Handhelds & Home Consoles. For example; Gunman Clive has sold more on the eShop then on Android which sold more of the digital game then iOS....I should add that the 3DS has the HFR 3D version of this cell-shaded graphics shooter.


Do I have to remind you of the Wii's record breaking start and overly optimistic fans and the ensuing extreme decline that shocked a lot of people (but far from all of us)?

PC's don't have any effect, granter, they have co-existed with consoles for decades for tablets and phones offer somewhat of an alternative for handhelds but not for home consoles. Gaming on the go with small screens and simple controls is perfect on these devices. The dedicated handheld is going away, just like the dedicated home console is gone, they do everything now. The difference lies in scale, hardware, sound and visuals and software.

3DS and Vita are dinosaurs in the modern age compared to new phones and tablets, I don't believe that these will co-exist like the PC and consoles, tablets/phones are a viable alternative and that is the key here.

3DS is selling well now but its starting to slow down, 2014 should see some big yoy drops and overall the handheld market is heading for 60-70% of the previous generations lifetime sale. In the same timespan, home console market has grown and the tablet/phone market has exploded. The handheld market is the only of the three that is shrinking right now.

So we have to wait til January 2014 to see which one of us is right, LOL.

Well you got the 3DS prediction down for 39 million life time sales by end of 2K13. Well I will predict somewhere from 43 to 50 million by end of 2K13.

Yeah, it could sell more, however, if it averages about the same as last week's number up until around the start of November, when the holidays starts to slowly kick in it will move another 6.84 million by then, placing it at around 35.7 million, that leaves about 3.3 million for the holidays, which is about 412.500 average out the year, throw in the weeks where it likely drops way below 190.000 average from last week in the preceding 36 weeks from now and you can probably add another 1-to-1.5 million more units it needs to sell during the holidays. With the yoy drops being large in january and the overall sinking average weekly sales towards the spring and summer lull along with yoy drops on the global average as the year goes on, including the holidays, the 3DS average could drop a whole lot.

The very best case scenario, 3DS needs about 3-3.3 million sales to reach 39 million (and a 412.500 weekly holiday average) and a worst case scenario it could need about 4.5-5 million more sales meaning it would need 562.500 average up to 625.000 average (or even more, depends how large the yoy drops are), in a slowing handheld market with two new consoles launching and phones and tablets going at it harder than ever. The Wii went from winning the holidays with a decent to going fairly well under in one year, things change quickly in today's gaming market.

I'd say that 39 million for the year is not unreasonable, far from guaranteed but certainly not unthinkable. My prediction hinges on my belief that the the handheld market is heading downwards pretty fast in the next couple of years.

43 to 50 million is a really, really broad margin, such a prediction isn't worth much unless you try to be more specific. 50 million is impossible, it would need a weekly average of about 480.000 through the entire year, starting today. 43 million would require a 320.000 average through the year starting now, also seems remarkably high as we know that it dipped into the 110k territory last year and is likely heading for yoy drops. 

50 million is just impossible, 43 million is unlikely at this point. If I am wrong, however, I will gladly eat my words.