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God of War: Ascension will easily be the biggest exclusive on consoles in 2013, it will open bigger and sell more lifetime than Gears of War: Judgment. GoW:A is already destroying Gears:J in its biggest region and GoW is much bigger in Japan and Europe. I think a more interesting question would be can The Last of Us match or sell more than Gear:J, I predict they'll be a lot closer than Gears:J will be to GoW:A.

God of War: Ascension lifetime = 5.75 - 6.25 million.
Gears of War: Judgment lifetime= 4.50 - 5.00 million.

I was looking at some old NPD data for the month of March 2010 and Vgchartz undertracked God of War III in the US alone by around 150,000 units, the game's still undertracked now by around 1 million worldwide so I imagine it's going to be a similar case again with God of War: Ascension. It's best to wait for NPD figures or official numbers before comparing both games to each other or previous installments in both franchises and coming to any conclusions... Although it's a safe bet to assume Gears of War: Judgment will sell nowhere near as well as past games in the series.