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You have a point, if there was a new SKU coming there should definately be a leak already.

The software bundle theory assumes that the shortages were intentional, to dry up the retail channel and make room for something new, not that it happend because of a miscalculation about demand (which I think is unlikely by a player such as MS). So I see a software bundle possible, although that would interfere with a soon approaching price drop.

Hmm... I don't know what to believe, just that there has to be something in the works behind the scenes.