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I think it will do better than the PS3 because all first party Sony studios are in OVERDRIVE mode since 2009. And Also, it will do better than PSVITA because most of Sony first party dont give a crap about the VITA sadly, but they care a lot for the PS main console. So I think that in the first year alone the PS4 will get U4, GG game and SSM new IP. That will provide good sales the first year.