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happydolphin on 07 February 2013
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JWeinCom said:

Tablets will be a hinderance to the PS4 and 720, but not in the way people think.  Let's say you're a 15 year old kid who is a casual (read: Call of Duty casual) gamer.  At Christmas time or his birthday he's going to have to choose, do I want a PS4 or an iPad?  He's not going to choose the iPad because it's a better gaming machine (unless he's an idiot) but he might want an iPad more  in general.  The fact that tablets are #1 on many people's christmas list is going to be a factor.  I'd go into more depth, but in short, every other entertainment product is in competition with the PS4 at some level, and since tablets are the most popular electronic device, that's why I see them as competition.  Not because of their gaming value.


As for why the PS3 and 360 are slumping, you explained why.  What were last year's big releases?  Halo 4, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed.  These games are going to appeal to existing fans, but they're not going to draw in new gamers or energize the industy. Towards the beginning of the generation we saw new franchises like Wii Sports, Uncharted, Dead Rising, Saints Row, Modern Warfare (sort of new), Assassin's Creed, and even things like Rock Band.  That's what typically happens when a new console launches.  Plus, we had much improved online modes and HD graphics (for X-Box and PS3), and motion controls (for the Wii).  There was a lot of exciting stuff going on.  Of course, for the X-Box 360 and PS3, most of this stuff happened a bit further into their lifespans, which is why they both were a bit sluggish at first.

People are bored with the current generation.  That's true, BUT I think they're bored with the software, not the hardware.  Wii fans are bored with the Wii, but they're not flocking to the Wii U because the Wii U doesn't have compelling software or features at the moment.  New hardware alone isn't enough to make people excited, it takes great software too.

That's why I think the PS4 and 720 are going to have problems with the PS3 and 360.  I think a lot of software, like the next COD, will be intentionally held back so that it can play on the 360 and PS3 as well, and that's going to prevent the PS4 and 720 from really having must have software.  I personally don't expect the PS4 and 720 to have a huge step in graphics, certainly not as big as the jump from SD to HD.  Combined with intentionally gimped software, this will post a problem.  I don't think we'll have a huge jump in online functionality either. Because of this, I dont see an immediate reason to go from PS3 to PS4 for fans.  The industry, sadly, will slump for a little while.  I don't think we're going to see the big jump that will jolt the industry.

The must have system pushing software will have to come from Microsoft and Sony, because they're the only ones who have the incentive to spend millions and millions on cutting edge next gen exclusive stuff.  These products will be the ones that reenergize the industry (or not).  After a year or so, when Microsoft and Sony have gotten the ball rolling on the shift from PS3 to PS4 and 360 to 720, that's when we'll see developers making use of next gen optimized games, and that's when the industry will kick up again.  Not counting the Wii U, which should be able to get rolling before then.


Overall, I think the situation is going to be a little bit like the Wii U situation, or more aptly, like the PS Vita situation in Japan.  Third party developers (MOST of them anyway) will not be eager to leave a 70+ M install base for a 0 install base.  That's why developers are still developing lots of stuff for the PSP, and limiting their Vita output.  Unless Sony can create some stuff themselves that will make people buy the Vita, third parties aren't going to go balls in. 

What an excellent post. I'm glad I recognize good posters and that I asked you to join.