| Aielyn said:
Six calendar months PS3 sales, November 2006-April 2007 (includes European launch in March): 3.24 million Incomplete three calendar months Wii U sales: 2.47 million Do you really think that, across February, March, and April, the Wii U won't sell 800,000 units? Even with Monster Hunter Tri Ultimate, Lego City Undercover, Rayman Legends, and Injustice: Gods Among Us releasing in that time in the West, and Dragon Quest X in Japan? |
There are 14 more weeks to the end of April. There is a deficit of 764,256. That means the Wii U will need to start selling 54590 per week, every week until the end of April. At its current rate of sales it will be behind by over 200k despite it being 23 vs 6 weeks in Europe. From PAL charts and Japanese charts, we know this past week was likely down, but let's be generous and say it was flat. That would bring the average needed for the next 13 weeks to 55,759, if it is down like Japan, that brings it up to 56,288. As for the software you listed, the first game doesn't come for five weeks, the rest is even later. That means we can probably expect the Wii U to be flat or down for the next five weeks. If we are once again generous and say it will be flat from the week ending the 26th, that would put the deficit at 601,696 with 9 weeks left. That would require 66,855 per week. The Wii U is likely also overtracked by about 77k based on the numbers from Nintendo, that brings us up to 75,410. Now does that seem likely when only two of the listed games are new exclusives? That means even with an extra 17 weeks in Europe there is a good chance the Wii U will be behind the PS3 come April.
