Shortages are a funny thing they are not universal. Not only do tastes differ regionally, but so do shopping patterns. I have seen 360 shortages over the past few months, and I have seen Wii consoles sit on shelves for a few days. You can't necessarily go off of what you see in your neck of the woods. Where you live might not be indicative of the whole. Instead it depends on your regional supply, and more specifically a stores supply.
I would believe him, because of what the sales on this very site tell me. Last year at this same time the 360 sold thirty thousand less units. Had Microsoft used last year as a metric for what they needed this year. Then a couple months of under supplying the market will get you shortages. Every console in fact has seen a dramatic improvement in sales year to year.
I think even with their better then expected performance during the latter half of last year Microsoft logically thought sales would slump until spring. I wouldn't call it stupid paying attention to precedent isn't stupid. We all do it day from day.
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