thismeintiel said:
Damn, you're right. If we look at Japan sales, the situation is somewhat similar. While it will take longer for it to happen, and I don't think the PS3 will pass the Wii, I do believe the PS3 is going to deminish the gap between it and the Wii incredibly. The gap is now ~3.7M in favor of the Wii. The PS3 outsold the Wii by ~760K in 2012. Now, let's say the PS3 and Wii see the same amount of decline as they did in 2012 (PS3 = 19% down, Wii = 46% down). That would mean that the PS3 will sell ~1M and the Wii would sell ~250K, which gives the PS3 a lead of ~750K. Keeping the same rate of decline, for 2014 we get 810K for the PS3 and 135K for Wii, a lead of 675K for the year. This already knocks that lead down to 2.3M. I expect the Wii will be taken off the market by the end of 2014, so any numbers PS3 racks up, it will continue to chip away at that lead. So, in 2015, that would give the PS3 656K, the gap decreases to 1.6M. In 2016, maybe the final year of the PS3, that's 531K, the gap decreases to 1.1M. Of course, I expect the Wii do be significantly down by more than 46% in Japan. More like 55%-60%. I also see this being a better year for the PS3, as far as declines go. Especially since it will get a price cut this year, as well as still having good SW support. So, I think it will be more like 15% down, instead of 19%. If things play out like I predict, than the PS3 will end up with ~1.1M and the Wii will have ~212K. That would decrease the gap to 2.8M. If the PS3 goes back to 20% declines, and the Wii settles at 50% declines, 2014 would give the PS3 880K and the Wii 106K. The gap decreases to 2M. The Wii is discontinued before 2015, the PS3 sells 704K, the gap decreases to 1.3M. 2016, the PS3 sells 563K, the gap decreases to 737K. Granted, my numbers are pretty optimistic for the PS3, probably even the Wii, but we'll have to see how things pla out. There is always the chance that without support, the Wii drops like a stone and ends up >60% down every year, from now on. TL;DR = I agree that PS3 is going to pass the Wii in EU and also think that the PS3 will end up only ~750K-1.5M behind the Wii in Japan, when all is said and done. Quite impressive when you consider how this gen began. |
I disagree with your sales for this year and for the later sales for PS3. PS3 SW support for Japan is looking quite bleak this year. What it needs to be able to make large gains on the Wii like you say is to get FFVXIII and others exclusive to PS3. The Wii is at 50% declines and in 2014 or 2015 I imagine the PS3 will be at 50% declines as well not the modest 20% declines. I agree the Wii will drop hard though. Overall yeah the PS3 will make some ground and pass in EU. Western support for PS3 is good this year with a price cut could be quite meaningful sales.
