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Casuals and mainstream audience - no idea. You need a surprise hit, I guess, something new altogether (like Wii Sports / Fit / Play / Party back then).

Talking about longtime Nintendo fans, I'm sure most of them are going to buy a Wii U at some point (I know I will), but launching the system without a must-have for them was a mistake :( Getting the loyal fans on board quickly would have been essential. The rest of the market is a gamble anyway.

NSMBU treads some sort of weird middle ground in that respect. It does not come across as revolutionary enough to be a must have, being the 4th instalment in a very uniform series. It's the type of game every owner is going to buy, but it doesn't make anybody buy the system.