I agree with $200 being the mark but I'd bet my life savings that Sony won't move down on price before Microsoft. Sony and MS are the only 2 next gen systems out there so their strategies are going to directly reflect what their competitors are doing. Microsoft is going to be reluctant to lower their price until Sony does as they are just now at the point of break even or slight profit on each unit sold and they JUST launched the elite. If I had bought an elite at 489 and there was a $100 price cut 60 days later I'd have a fit. Besides that fact, there have been a couple of stories I've read - though I don't remember where - that there is pressure within Microsoft to move the gaming group into the black and soon. If they hold their price which seems likely they can given the strong fall software lineup, sony has no real incentive to lose even MORE than they are with a price cut. I guess it will come down to which one blinks first.
I hate trolls.
Systems I currently own: 360, PS3, Wii, DS Lite (2)
Systems I've owned: PS2, PS1, Dreamcast, Saturn, 3DO, Genesis, Gamecube, N64, SNES, NES, GBA, GB, C64, Amiga, Atari 2600 and 5200, Sega Game Gear, Vectrex, Intellivision, Pong. Yes, Pong.
