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Aielyn said:

Wii Sports U says hi. So does Pokemon. Animal Crossing Wild World outsold Brawl, too. Metroid would be able to bring in quite a bit of hype if done right. So would a Mario vs Sonic adventure game, or a Final Fantasy/Zelda crossover (let me be clear - not predicting that this will happen), or one of a number of other possibilities. Realistically, it's possible for a single announcement to be easily competitive with Mario 3D and Mario Kart, in either sales or hype.

More generally, it's possible for an accumulation of announcements that go beyond those.

I dunno, I strongly suspect that Wii Sports' day has come and gone. I'd expect a Wii U version to do about as well as Nintendogs+cats did relative to the original Nintendogs. Animal Crossing is much bigger on handhelds than on console. Metroid is nowhere near that level, and never will be. A Mario vs. Sonic non-minigame game is getting close to la-la land again, though maybe not quite there, but Final Fantasy x Zelda is firmly in it and would never sell that much anyway because crossovers generally don't match the sales of either of the franchises envolved.

Anyway, I guess we have different definitions of "realistic". Last year's bombshell was Pikmin, a game that was also pre-announced well in advance. To the extent that I'm personally expecting anything, I'm expecting Retro's game. But if Nintendo just said, "Here's the name of the new Mario Kart, here's the logo, here's some gameplay, see you next year," I would hardly be shocked.