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the_dengle said:
Metallicube said:

3DS stumbles out the gate to mediocre sales -> price is dropped in desperation and library begins to improve -> console begins to gain momentum and reach pretty strong sales but still not great.

Not arguing with anything you said, but you need to adjust your definition of "great" if being ahead of the DS in aligned LTD sales 102 weeks after launch doesn't fit it. Seeing as 102 weeks after the DS's launch places it in November of 2006, well after the Lite and NSMB releases.

3DS

US Week 94: 7,929,270
EU Week 95: 7,328,624
JP Week 99: 10,218,276

Total: 25,476,170

DS

US Week 94: 5,986,876
EU Week 95: 9,529,545
JP Week 99: 11,680,034

Total: 27,196,455

Considering this is ending Sept 9th for the US and Oct 15th for Japan, the gap is likely to grow much wider over the next few months.  By the end of the holiday season, Japan added another ~2.6 million, roughly averaging 223k a week.  In the US it added over 3 million averaging about 180k a week.  In the EU the DS and 3DS launched in roughly the same point in the calendar, so the gap has already started to show there as both systems have had their second holiday.

Panama said:
I find it hard to believe that the Wii U wouldnt have at least shifted 40k in Japan this week.

Sales generally drop about 60% this week in Japan.  40k is probably unrealistic.