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thismeintiel on 13 January 2013
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Michael-5 said:

PS2 has sold 156.7 million now and has shipped 157.3 million. So if PS2 was discontinued like the link says, then DS needs to sell only 3.5 million units to top PS2. DS sold 3.5 million units in 2012.

So, with the rate it's falling, it's likely to break 1 million in USA alone for Q4 (hasn't dropped much this quarter, in this region for over a year). In Japan it's dead, and we can only expect 1 million from Europe. So DS should sell 2-2.5 million units in 2013, and then it would just need 1-1.5 million units for 2014, which is very very possible.

Also note that DS's rate of decline has flattened out now that 3DS has established itself. Comparing this weeks sales to the same time last week, DS only fell 37%, and that number is dropping with every week. Still, assuming a 40% decline, that means DS will sell about 1.225 million units less then 2012, which means 2.225 million sold (like I estiamted above lol). Then DS just needs 1.225 to tie PS2.

I believe shipments for the PS2 are closer to 157.5M, but we can still use your 157.3M.  Nintendo's financials will probably put the DS at ~154M at the end of the year.  In 2011, the DS dropped by 57%.  In 2012, if we don't have it under/overtracked in EU, it dropped 61%.  This year, it will probably be down ~64%, which would put it at ~155.3M shipped.  But, let's go with a better scenerio and say it only drops 50% this year.  That would put it at around ~155.8M shipped, which is still 1.5M away from what you think the PS2 is at this year.  Now, let's be crazy and say the DS only drops 40% in 2014.  That would put it at ~156.9M shipped, which is still 400K from where you think the PS2 is at now.  Now, let's stay crazy and say the DS only drops 40% in 2015.  That would put it at ~157.6M, FINALLY over the PS2.

Now, the only problem with this scenerio is it paints a rosy picture of the DS's declines, which won't be quite so rosy in real life.  That, and the fact that the DS WILL NOT be on shelves in 2015.  I'm pretty sure it will barely see 2014 before it gets discontinued.  Maybe in time for Nintendo to include its final numbers in their FY2013 report.