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Had Nintendo launched a "Gamecube" in the last generation against the expensive HD consoles it probably would have sold better than the Gamecube did, and I think it would have probably seen about 60 million units sold.

I'm not sure how that strategy would work in the current generation because we really don't know what Sony and Microsoft are doing. Sony and Microsoft will likely try to balance processing power, new features, new services, and cost and will probably not find the perfect mix (few companies ever do); and (depending on where their strategies are strong and weak) the Gamecube strategy could be very successful or a disaster.

As an extreme example in one direction, if Sony or Microsoft produce a highly powerful system with an advanced UI device it could end up costing $600 (or more) for a consumer at launch; in this environment a moderately powerful barebones gaming console that is agressively priced could be very successful. In contrast, if Sony and Microsoft release more modest hardware and keep new UI devices as add-ons, the Gamecube strategy could have Nintendo releasing a "generic" product against 2 companies which didn't work out well for them in the past.