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My argument is that X and Y will sell let's say similar to D/P in Japan in its first year (even though I think it will do B/W numbers), so that's 4.5 million in Japan. It just needs 5.5 million from NA and EU (3 mil N/A, 2.5 mil E/U). Both are plausible given what tbone said and the fact that it will be the holidays, which will give Pokemon superior launch numbers to the previous versions. I can't imagine how big it will be on BF!

Is 12 million possible? I think the best case scenario is:
5 mil Japan + 4 mil NA + 3 mil EU = 12 mil.
SO YES!! But that's really the best case scenario, i think 9-11 mil is the most likely, and I think it depends on the EU which has been so far the 3DS's weakest market