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sperrico87 on 11 January 2013
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pezus said:
sperrico87 said:
pezus said:

Why is it unlikely? PS2 lived for over 12 years, and at the rate PS3 is going it could easily last for at least 4 more.

The sales rate for PS3 is far behind the PS2.  I think this console cycle has gone on so long that people forget how quickly sales drop when the successors hit.  If people are pinning their PS3-hitting-105-million hopes on emerging markets, I think they will be disappointed.  I don't think that 100 or 105 million is a realistic trajectory for PS3 in the next four-to-five years, and if I had to venture a guess I'd wager that Sony's own internal expectations don't show that trajectory, either.

No, it isn't really. How much did PS2 sell/ship in 2006? What about 2007? PS2 was more explosive early on while PS3 was weak and grew to be much stronger than it was. 
I'm betting on 95m myself though

Yeah, PS3 has had a much slower burn in terms of sales.  The opposite of the Wii and PS2.  95 is within reach, but it'll be a few years, and by then all three successors will have been released into the market, so if it doesn't hit 95 million by 2015 it never will.