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Mandalore76 on 11 January 2013
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DaRev said:
Mandalore76 said:


That would pre-suppose that Microsoft will wait to release 720 until 2015 or later, which is probably not the case.  Even if MS doesn't release a new console this year, they would more than likely do so in 2014.  Do you really think that Sony would sit a generation out for nearly 4 years, and give Microsoft a 2 year headstart (minimum) on building an install base over them?  That, after Sony has spent PS3's entire lifetime chasing XBox 360's sales trying to make up for a 1 year headstart?  Once the next XBox releases, I don't see a way for Sony to wait until 2016 to come out with a PS4.  And, as 360's sales continue trending downward, I don't see a way that they go another 4 years without releasing something new either.  If they both did that, it would only play into Nintendo's hands.  The Wii U games will only look better as developers become more accustomed to developing on the system.  More and more people would flock to it simply because it is the only "new" game system available and multiplats would look better on Wii U than PS3/360 anyway.  A 4 year install base would be pretty formidable, don't you think?

Well I agree with most of what your saying. Mainly that no one can really afford to give the over a headstart and I certainly don't expect Sony or MS to give the other a headstart in any future console gen. However, with that said, the 1 year headstart 360 had over Wii was obliterated and successfully chased down by the PS3., which is of course different from the dominace in the market the PS2 had when it released ahead of the original Xbox and Gamecube. So anything can happen, good to not so great, with a headstart. I assume that the headstart the Wii U has is not really going to make much of a difference, i.e that it will not dominate like the PS2 did, but will probably be more like the 360 and manage to keep steady pace or even a lead on the other consoles for a good number of years, but will not dominate.

And no doubt, what will contribute to that leveling out/restricting of the sales of the new consoles is the fact that the PS360 will still be selling well for about the next 2 years, I think, unless MS and Sony really decide to kill them off. To put my OP into context, the PS720 could end up in a situation like the Vita finds itself, actively being beaten by its predecessor for 1 or 2 years to come.

I think we will find that PS360 have much more life in them than other consoles did at the end of previous generations. Hence I don't see the real reason for abandoing PS360 just yet and especially not in 2013.  

That I won't dispute.  I do agree that they could both go another year.  I just don't see either one sitting out all of 2014 and especially not through 2015.  They would, or Sony at the very least, would continue to sell their current console, but also need to have a new console out and building an install base by then.