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VGKing on 10 January 2013
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Jay520 said:
VGKing said:

10m is the lowest it could go if you're being pesismistic.
11m being optimistic.

I think 11m is very possible with all the great games releasing this year including games like GTA V + a possible price cut and maybe even the 12gig PS3 model being released in the US.


After a console falls after its peak, its subsequent falls are considerably more harsh. And YoY falls are even more severe the year its successor releases.

The PS3 fell 16% in 2012. That being said, we should expect the PS3 to fall considerably more than 16% this year. That means the PS3 should sell considerably less than 10m this year. And this is without considering the effect the PS4 release will have.

Please explain to me how 10m is pessimistic. A 10m prediction would have the PS3 fall 16% YoY, which is the same it fell last year. That sounds extremely optimistic to me. Your 11m figure isn't optimistic, it's a dream. 11m would assume a 7% drop - an enourmous improvement over 2012's 16% drop, and with the PS4 possibly releasing too; 11m simply wishful thinking.

Since the PS3 fell 16% last year, it'll likely fall 20-30% YoY this year, if not more. That would put it at around 8.5 - 9.5m. So 9.5m is actually a optimistic prediction because it assumes a 20% drop which is barely higher than it's 16% drop last year.

This isn't your typical console generation and the PS3 is still getting a huge amount of both exclusive and 3rd party support I just don't see sales falling that much especially if a price cut is planned for this year. PS3 still isn't at mass market price.