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VGKing said:

10m is the lowest it could go if you're being pesismistic.
11m being optimistic.

I think 11m is very possible with all the great games releasing this year including games like GTA V + a possible price cut and maybe even the 12gig PS3 model being released in the US.

I doubt any new software for the PS3 will spike the sales up.

EDIT: Ninja'd.