pezus said:
sperrico87 said:
Turkish said:
Yes. Wii will stop selling around 100-102m. PS3 has 5 more years left of sales. The shipments should be around 75m right now, it will definetly do another 25m.
My prediction still stands, PS3 will reach 105m. |
5 more years? How? It launched at the end of 2006. Even going by Sony's own bloated "10-year lifecycle" tag, which is of course bogus, that's less than four years away from reaching fruition. And you're not factoring in that PS4 by all estimates will launch no later than fall 2014, which means PS3 sales will nosedive. In all likelihood they'll probably nosedive starting this holiday, as Xbox 3 and Wii U begin the new cycle and stomp out the previous generation.
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Why is it unlikely? PS2 lived for over 12 years, and at the rate PS3 is going it could easily last for at least 4 more.
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The sales rate for PS3 is far behind the PS2. I think this console cycle has gone on so long that people forget how quickly sales drop when the successors hit. If people are pinning their PS3-hitting-105-million hopes on emerging markets, I think they will be disappointed. I don't think that 100 or 105 million is a realistic trajectory for PS3 in the next four-to-five years, and if I had to venture a guess I'd wager that Sony's own internal expectations don't show that trajectory, either.
