Is 2008, the beginning of the end for the XBox 360?

[Lord N]

mrstickball said:

Dark_Lord_2008 said:

With poor console sales figures in its first two years. One in 3 failure rate for hardware. Its main competitors Nintendo and Sony released one year after, one of which (Wii) has already passed the XBox 360 console sales. The best list of video games for 2007 (including Bioshock and Halo 3) , which failed to increase console sales. A mediocre list of exclusive titles for 2008. What does the future hold for Microsoft's XBox 360?

I currently own an XBox 360 and I am deciding on trading the XBox 360 in for a Nintendo Wii. Nintendo Wii may not have the graphical edge but least the games are fun to play and are not all FPS (PS3 and XBox 360)

Your analysis is entirely wrong in nearly every regard.

#1. The Xbox 360 didn't have poor console sales it's first 2 years. Yes, they are mediocre in some respects, but definately not poor. The Xbox 360, in the same timeframe, has sold 3.5 million more units than it's predicessor, the Xbox. Not only this, but the Xbox 360 is still very expensive, with the "standard" model being $350, whereas the Xbox was no more than $199 at this time.

#2. The Wii has passed the X360 despite being released a year early - but exactly how does that negatively effect the X360? It doesn't. Any system that would of released a year early - such as the PS3, would of still lost to the Wii's sales.

#3. The "best list" of 2007 X360 games did indeed move consoles - did you notice that the X360 beat the Wii out in September, with over 500,000 consoles sold in North America alone? That's a fairly large effect, considering the X360 sold half of that the previous year in Sept.

#4. Year over year, the Xbox 360 is well ahead of every previous year, and has not changed. In Oct-December in 2006, the Xbox 360 sold 3.308 million units. In 2007, the same period, the Xbox 360 sold 4.137 million units. This is despite the 2006 year having an extra week of sales. That extra 800,000 Xbox 360's sold in 2007, during that time, is significant, no?

#5. Even this year thus far, the Xbox 360 is up about 15% - 706,000 units to 599,000 units worldwide from the first week of January, to the most recent full week of reporting.

#6. This "mediocre list of exclusives" is one of the most atrocious jokes you've played thus far. Fable 2 was the 2nd best-selling exclusive IP the Xbox had (and the 2nd best selling non-Halo game the Xbox had). Alan Wake, Ninja Gaiden 2, Halo Wars, and Banjo Kazooie 3 are all very critical titles that will ship this year. Although none are Halo-level of sales, games like Alan Wake, Banjo Kazooie 3, and Ninja Gaiden 2 are very critical to diversifying the Xbox 360 library at the exclusive IP level.

#7. I really am not understanding why you choose to complain about the Xbox 360 being "all FPS" games. I have yet to see your name pop up in the Microsoft Xbox 360 forums here. If you've ever been to that forum, there is litterally no discussion about upcoming FPS games, and the vast majority of games that the X360 owners play here are RPGs, and other non-FPS games. If you dislike the Xbox 360 library, your not looking very hard. It still has the most diverse lineup of games, and the most solid assortment of RPGs, Racers, Action/Adventure games, Horror, Real-Time Strategy, and Simulation.

 1) For a console that had the market to itself for the first year, its sales were rather dismal. Outside of N. America, they were horrendous.

2) the 360 would have had a better chance of keeping its lead had it not nullified ever advantage it got by launching early. 

3) It beat the Wii for one month in N. America only, and that required Halo 3. Of course it's going to sell significantly more than the same month of the previous year when its biggest franchise is released.

4) This is trivial at best in and of itself and because we're talking about very small numbers. 

5) Again, 15% doesn't really mean much, and neither does 3.5 million over the Xbox at this point in its lifetime. It's the same as adding a few million more onto the lifetime sales of the N64 or Gamecube.

6) Those games will probably sell well, but to the userbase. None of them are proven system sellers, and one is a brand new IP that could end up being a flop.

7) The 360's best-selling and most popular games are shooters, sports games, and racing sims. It has a few token games in the other genres, but nothing to write home about. Every RPG on the 360 has been an unmitigated failure as far as sales and/or notoriety is concerned, it's just now getting a respectable action/adventure game(Devil May Cry 4), and after more than two years on the market, it still doesn't have a single platformer. 

All that being said, I don't think the 360 will face any doom in 2008, but its hardware sales will probably stagnate.