| TheLastStarFighter said: Just as a footnote to some of the stock price chat we've had, Nintendo announces a massive title for this fall that will probably move millions of hardware units and sell upwards of 15 million copies and has a worldwide simultaneous release for the first time. What happens to share price? It drops 3% naturally. As game fans and shareholders we can mix our passions, but most investors do not. They do not understand the business. They do not follow games. They follow profits, dividends and hype. NTDOY is stuck in a slump until Iwata says "profit!", and until kids and wives and girlfriends start seeing that fancy touchscreen pad at a friends place and want one of their own and CNN does a story about it. We need to be patient. |
As a Nintendo fan, I'm loving what I'm seeing coming out of Nintendo for 2013. As a Nintendo investor, I'm also hit with a $10k loss on the heels of such a joyous announcement. Though to be fair the ADR trading follows Japan, so tonight maybe will see more cheerful trading.
Nintendo as a gaming company continues to be great, but as an investment, it's a tough tough stock to love. You have to have patience and you have to be willing to continue to buy into this weakness and also need to hang on for the ride up. If you intend on flipping for anything less than a 2 bagger, there are just tons of other stocks that will outperform this guy. The only positive spin, and the reason I picked it for long term accumulation is it is so out of favor, it is essier tp accumulate larger position over time. Hasnt gone anywhere but down for a few years, so every year when you are looking to buy, this thing is cheaper...again. But real risk is tiny, the company's market cap is overwhelmingly backed by cash.
Nintendo as a company is very Japancentric. As an investor, I fail to see the charm of Reggie, and fail to appreciate their new marketing guy Moffit as I clearly see poor and missed opportunities to promote the 3DS and Wii U. The Yen reversal will help Nintendo's buttom line, but their year end sales projections not so much.
Back when they "downwardly" revised back in 3rd quarter, their revised numbers were still...unattainable in my eyes. Net Sales of 800 billion Yen by year end when 6 months to date to 9/30/12 was 200 billion. Some of you are better at recalling history than I am, when has Nintendo ever achieved a 2nd Half vs 1st Half Net Sales multiple of 3 to 1?
So to some of us who own this stock, my suggestion is, you must find it in you to add to your position when you invest in dogs like this. The pros and mutual funds don't want Nintendo on their rep sheets, in fact, if they did, they'd dump it so they look like geniuses with mostly winners come year end. When you bet against the market, you pretty much have ensured losses if you arent prepared to ride it down, and buy buy buy.
