I think there is a large disruption in the status quo coming this year with the new console offering from steam. It will target "hardcore" gamers and provide real competition especially on software prices. The core Nintendo audience is likely to be least affected by this disruption. That and Nintendo has already undergone the major transition hurdles, R&D expenditures, sales losses after announcing a new console, etc... 2013 should be just fine for them.
0.8x Wii sales= success. To expect sales greater than 0.8 times the last gen is to ignore the protracted global economic malaise and European crisis. Products are not sold in a vacuum.
As much as i disagree with Pratchet predictions, the smartphone and tablet have taken away a lot of the same purchasing space that consoles occupied in 2006. For example your kid wants console x and tablet y for Christmas but your disposable income is reduced from 2006, both have similar price points and are entertainment devices. Fewer people will choose both x & y given reduced purchasing power, hence why any console that does 0.8 times last gen sales is doing just fine.
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