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dsgrue3 on 03 January 2013
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DanneSandin said:
dsgrue3 said:
HappySqurriel said:
dsgrue3 said:
Wii didn't sell under 200,000 units per week from launch date until mid-march.
Wii U will sell under 200,000 units by Mid-January.

There is no hype for Wii U, these projections are way off.

Sub 4m by end of March.


Last year the Wii sold 1,557,816 from January 1st to March 31st, the Wii U will (likely) need less than that to have sold 4 Million by the end of March, and if you think the Wii U will sell worse than the Wii did in 2012 I have a bridge to sell you ...

250k (dec. 29th) + fw 2013 200k + 12 weeks (2013) at ~120k per week = 1.89m

Curent: 2.207 + 1.89 = 4.097m

Sub 4m seems possible but unlikely, ~4m seems accurate to me.

I'll lay down some numbers for you. Xbox360 was released more or less on the same day as Wii U in 2005, and during its first 5 weeks it ALMOST sold 1,1m (1.08 really) averaging 216,475 sold units per week. It also sold ALMOST 1,25m (1,245 really) in 2006 up until 1 of April, averaging 95, 819/week.

Wii U on the other hand has sold slightly over 2.2m (2.207 really) in its first 5 weeks - MORE than double that of the 360 in the same period of time - averaging 441,565/week.

So you actually believe a console that outsold the 360 with twice as much in their first 5 weeks will only sell slightly more than 360 in the period between January-March? The numbers speak against you.

Considering these sales numbers it wouldn't be too farfetched to assume it'll sell almost twice as much as 360 from January-March, which means it COULD sell somewhere around 3m, and adding to that the current sold 2.2 Wii U's we get a total of 5.2m Wii U by the end of March - and that's not even considering the week ending the 29th December...

I'm not sure if this analysis will hold true, but mark my words; it'll sell more than 4m by the end of March.


You're really going to compare a $400 console launch where the previous iteration sold 24m lifetime to a $300-$350 console where the previous iteration sold 100+m? 

All I can say is prepare to be disappointed.